Write of Center

Mar 31 2020
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With Super Tuesday primaries behind us certain trends are emerging that give a glimpse of what might happen in November’s general election.

The national mainstream media, which is essentially an arm of the Democratic National Committee, has hyped Democratic Party primaries as an outpouring of voter support for change, noting the anger among this electorate.

While anger and rage can be a short-term motivator, it is an unreliable gauge of voter turnout over the long term. The results of Democratic Party primaries to date demonstrate this.

There have been 14 primaries so far this year that also held elections in 2008. I use 2008 as a comparison because that was the year there was an unpopular second term Republican in the White House, and Democrats were fired up over their two leading candidates for President, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

The turnout in these 14 states is quite interesting and revealing. A total of 15 million votes were cast in 2008, while only 13.3 million have voted in 2020, a decline of 11%. The population of these states has increased 10% since 2008, and if Democratic turnout had kept pace with voter growth there would have been 16.5 million voters, or 3.2 million more than actually voted. In other words, while the media and the left are screaming with rage against President Trump, voter turnout on the Democratic side has hardly been robust.

Remembering 2008, any objective individual could sense the excitement and electricity in Democratic primaries. The same excitement existed in the GOP 2016 primaries, with Republicans as eager and hopeful for change as were Democrats in 2008.

Digging deeper into the numbers, Democrat turnout decreased by 16% in the strong GOP states of Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Voter turnout in the swing state of North Carolina dropped over 16%, Iowa by 26%, while New Hampshire was flat. Even deep blue California saw a 13% drop in turnout.

Only 4 of the 14 states that have voted saw increases in Democratic turnout, including Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts. Utah saw an impressive 37% increase in Democratic turnout, but this is somewhat offset by its explosive population growth (22% since 2008) and the fact that the GOP has a greater than 3-1 edge in registered voters over Democrats.

Even Texas, which Democrats have been forecasting as going blue for over a decade, saw a drop from 2.8 million in 2008 to just over 2 million this year. Without any competitive primaries for president or statewide positions, GOP turnout matched that of Democrats in 2020. In 2008, Texas Democrats outvoted the GOP by 2-1.

What accounts for the relatively lackluster Democrat turnout? I’ll leave that for political experts to decipher, but it could have something to do with the nature of the candidates’ campaigns. I can’t remember the last time any of them had anything good to say about America. From listening to their grievances against our country, one would think that it is “Mourning in America” as opposed to Ronald Reagan’s re-election theme of “Morning in America.”

Another interesting trend is in voter registration by party. Many states (including Texas) do not register by party, while others do. In many swing states there is an increasing trend of improved GOP voter loyalty.

Florida has seen its Democrat edge in voters shrink from 694,000 in 2008, when Obama won the state, to 330,000 in 2016, when Trump carried the state. It currently has shrunk further to a 246,000 edge. Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 when Democrats enjoyed a registration advantage of 865,000. Trump carried the state in 2016 when that edge fell to 637,000. Today it is down to 451,000.

Pennsylvania has seen a 1,236,000 Democrat edge in 2008 (Obama won) drop to 916,000 in 2016 (Trump won) and 802,000 today. Iowa has flipped from a 106,000 Democrat edge in 2008 to a 19,000 GOP edge today. Nevada has seen a 10% Democrat edge drop to 7.5%, which may help Trump carry the state having narrowly lost it in 2016.

What do all these numbers mean? They may mean a lot, or they could mean absolutely nothing. Time will tell. However, there is no denying the underlying positive trends for Republicans.

While the main stream media openly roots for Democrats, much of the country, particularly in what liberal elites mockingly refer to as “flyover country,” remains wary of a party that has moved so far to the left that it seems many of them have left America.

It sure will be an interesting 8 months until election day.